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The EU recently decided that accession negotiations between the EU and Ukraine can start. From such negotiations starting until Ukraine can actually gain membership takes a long time. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban left the meeting before the vote on whether the EU should start negotiations with the EU, previously he had blocked a large aid package from the EU to Ukraine. All the other 26 member states were in favor, only Hungary was against. Orban will use Ukraine to gain benefits for Hungary.

The background for Orban using Ukraine in the conflict with the EU

The EU has frozen some funds for Hungary. This has been done because the union is worried about the rule of law in the country. The EU has used Article 7 of the EU treaty, which states that the treaty can be triggered if the principles on which the EU is based are broken. These are the principles of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, legal certainty and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities.

In the extreme, Hungary can be thrown out of the EU. After Viktor Orban became prime minister in Hungary, the country has moved in the opposite direction to what the EU’s principles say. This is the reason why the EU has frozen financial funds for Hungary. This is also the reason why there is increasingly open talk about throwing Hungary out of the Union.

Orban will obviously use Ukraine to access these financial resources. It is likely that there will be negotiations over the New Year to resolve the conflict. For all other EU countries it is important to give Ukraine support, for Orban who is a close friend of Russian President Putin, Ukrainian membership plays less of a role.

Why Ukraine wants membership?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj has been active in his travel business. These trips have mostly been to get continued support for Ukraine’s defense struggle. But the travel industry has also largely been an offensive against the EU. Ukraine wants to join the EU as soon as possible. A desire that is not new, in fact the war between Ukraine and Russia started in 2014 because Ukraine did not want to just be part of the Russian sphere, but also look west. It was this that Russia did not accept and which led to the annexation of Crimea and the subsequent occupation of parts of the Donbas, in eastern Ukraine. Read my previous blog about this.

Ukraine sees a rapprochement with Western Europe as the only long-term solution. The country wants Ukrainian goods to gain greater access to Western Europe, and the same applies to Ukrainian agricultural products. Many Ukrainians dream of getting work in the West, where wages are far higher than in Ukraine. Some want to move to the west on a permanent basis, others as temporary. Membership in the EU is the goal for most Ukrainians.

Why does the EU want Ukraine as a member?

Most democratic countries in Europe are members of the union. Ukraine is a democratic country. The country is also interesting for the EU on a general economic basis. Ukraine is a large country both in area and population. The Ukrainian market is exciting, especially with regard to the future.

Once the war ends, Ukraine faces the biggest reconstruction in Europe after World War II. Enormous developments that the EU wants to be part of. Such a gigantic reconstruction will lead to economic progress for a country that is economically in ruins. This progress will also have a positive impact on the EU.

A long way of negotiations before membership

There are many obstacles in the way and many years of negotiations before Ukraine can become an EU member. Ukraine has challenges both in terms of economy and corruption. The economy has been bad for several years, corruption has improved in recent years, but is still high. These two elements are the biggest obstacles, of course apart from Russia’s aggressiveness and brutal war.

Of course, Viktor Orban can also stand in the way of Ukraine. Then the choice for the EU will actually be Hungary or Ukraine. The costs of rebuilding the war-ravaged country will largely fall on the European democracies anyway. The assumption is of course that Putin’s army does not win the war.

Sources:

Ukraine – European Commission (europa.eu)

Accession of Ukraine to the European Union – Wikipedia

EU vows Ukraine to get aid despite veto by Hungary’s Orban | Reuters