The days when Crimea was annexed and Ukraine invaded
Dette innlegget er også tilgjengelig i: Norsk bokmål Русский Українська
We write 20 February today. The thoughts go back to 20 February 2014 when some green men with no distinguishing marks on their uniforms eventually took control of the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine. A little later, Crimea was annexed by Russia. It was the start of Europe’s biggest conflict after World War II. Shortly after the annexation of Crimea, Russian forces moved into eastern Ukraine in the area commonly referred to as Donbas. A small-scale war that lasted until 24 February 2022. Then the war broke out. Russia went to full-scale war against Ukraine, a war which has probably claimed the lives of over 200,000 people so far and which is still ongoing. Ukraine resisted and most of the country was not invaded.
A war between dictatorship and democracy, imperialism and independence
I have written many blogs about both the Maidan revolution in the winter of 2013-14, the annexation of Crimea and Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine . Therefore, I spend little time on it here, but refer to my previous blogs.
But I would still like to emphasize what the war is really about. It is Putin’s dream to restore the Russian Empire. The will of the Ukrainian people to turn against the rest of Europe and not only against Russia did not sit well with Putin. Ukraine’s desire through the Maidan revolution was not to lose its close friendship with Russia, but to expand its own circle of friends. Maidan also demanded that Ukraine do something about corruption and be less economically dependent on Russia. Ukraine, was in the process of gaining a democratic tradition that Russia as a country distanced itself more and more from. After Putin came to power in Moscow, Russia has developed into an increasingly undemocratic and eventually totalitarian form of government. Go against what Ukrainians wanted. Putin felt he was losing control of a country he had indirectly treated as his own backyard.
A military special operation at home, Ukraine was invaded
Putin tried to cover up the Russian attack on the neighboring country by calling it a military special operation. In reality, it was a full-scale war. Ukraine was attempted to be invaded. Putin thought it would take 10 days, now Russia is in the swamp. It has been 1 year since the illegal invasion attempt started. The result is suffering, death, injuries and people on the run. The result for Russia is also loss of markets for oil and gas, loss of international influence and loss of face for the Russian arms industry.
The fact that Russia has not backed down and accepted that Ukraine is too costly to occupy speaks of a desperate dictator. Putin cannot live with a loss in Ukraine. It will probably mean the end of him as president. His private wealth has been built up and is dependent on him having control over the state apparatus. Putin started a war he cannot win and which sooner or later will be his own undoing.
Volodymyr Zelenskyj the very symbol of Ukraine’s resistance
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi is probably the greatest hero of the democratic world. He is the epitome of the exact opposite of Putin. The popular way he has led the country throughout this year is causing a stir. The suit was replaced by a hoodie or t-shirt when Russia attacked Ukraine. He stood by his people and did not leave the country in crisis. Please read my previous blog about Volodymyr Zelenskyj .
Volodymyr Zelenskyj has been absolutely decisive for Western support for Ukraine. Through his speeches, the people of Europe, the USA, Canada and several other countries have understood what the war is really about. It is the understanding that the war is about dictatorship or democracy. It is the understanding that the war is about freedom against imperialism. Through his descriptions, he has also made ordinary people understand the suffering of the Ukrainian people.
Sanctions as a form of reaction
Western sanctions against Russia have had limited effect. Honestly, I think everyone was hoping they would have more impact. But it is in two areas that the sanctions obviously have an effect. There are sanctions affecting Russia’s arms industry. They depended on western technology, now it is difficult for them to get this technology. The second is that several European countries have made themselves independent of Russian oil and gas. This was probably not included in Putin’s calculation. He believed that the dependence of Russia on the energy sector meant that Western countries would settle for symbolic support for Ukraine. The massive Western arms support for Ukraine was hardly something Putin envisioned before the war.
The fact that several countries in Europe have made themselves independent of Russian oil and gas has several positive aspects. In fact, this is helping to speed up the green shift in Europe. The development of renewable energy has exploded as a result of the war. Russia has lost its most important market for fossil energy for all time. Russia is probably able to sell much of the gas and oil it previously sold to Europe to others. But the price Europe paid can hardly be paid by African countries, nor most Asian countries.
Finally, a single prayer remains for Putin. Withdraw forces from Ukraine, face defeat. Ukraine can never be taken. End the mass murders, suffering, forced adoption of children, rape and other suffering.
Glory to Ukraine.
Sources:
Russo-Ukrainian War – Wikipedia