US and Israeli attacks on Iran
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The US and Israel attacked Iran 24 hours ago. The purpose of going to war against Iran is unclear. The US claims Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program is the reason. Both countries are probably hoping for a regime change as a result of the war. The fact that several leaders of the religious Muslim regime in Iran have been killed in targeted attacks suggests that the desire for regime change is the real reason. Among those killed is Iran’s long-time leader Ali Khamenei.
An attack that could become a quagmire for the US
Photo: Khamenei.ir, License: CC BY 4.0
US involvement and attacks on Iran could quickly become a quagmire. Achieving a regime change without the use of soldiers on Iranian soil seems unlikely. Ali Khamenei has ruled Iran with an iron fist. As one of the countries in the world with the most repression of its own population, Ali Khamenei was able to hold on to power. The problem is that this is not a regime that is dependent on one man. It is an Islamic ideology that will stop at nothing to oppress its own people. Women are imprisoned for not wearing the veil, political opponents are hanged and a regime built on fear.
If there is to be regime change, the entire apparatus of power must be removed. This is not easy, especially when opponents are imprisoned and in many cases executed. This brutal violence against its own population means that the opponents are not organized. The US and Israel are hoping for an internal uprising in Iran to remove the clerical regime there. Such an uprising depends on a strong and united opposition. This is probably not the case in today’s Iran. Although the majority want a different regime, there is no common agreement on the way forward.
Iran plunged into civil war?
The consequence of the attack could be that Iran’s rule is weakened and the country is plunged into a bloody internal civil war. Various groups may take up arms to seize power. It is not certain that these groups are particularly democratic. Nor is it certain that a civil war will lead to a humane regime. Religious Muslim groups will probably fight for power. Suffice it to mention the conflicts between Sunny Muslim and Shia Muslim groups. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are two of them. None of them seem particularly interested in a humanitarian state.
If a change of regime for the better is to take place, US soldiers will probably have to enter Iran. It is unlikely that Trump wants that. Therefore, the whole war seems pointless. If we imagine that the US and Israel eventually enter into some kind of peace agreement with a clerical regime in Iran, what awaits the civilian population in Iran then? Well, mass executions of civilians who supported the attack in the hope that the dictatorship of the clerical regime would fall. The blood will continue to flow.