Lukashenko is under pressure from Putin
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While Russia is facing major problems along the front lines in Ukraine, Putin is trying to put pressure on Lukashenko. Ukraine currently holds a fairly significant advantage in the war; Russia is losing more and more territory along the front lines, and Ukraine is dealing heavy blows to Russia’s oil refineries, oil storage facilities, and road networks. Russia is under heavy pressure from Ukraine. The Russian president wants to open a new front through Belarus. This is something Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is trying to avoid. Ukraine has made it clear to Belarus that if a new front line is opened from Belarus, Belarus will be actively involved in the war and can expect Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on infrastructure, military targets, and oil and gas storage facilities.
Lukashenko and Belarus’ Role in the War
When Russia attacked Ukraine on February 24, 2022, it did so with large forces that attacked Ukraine from the south, east, and north. From the north, Russian forces stationed in Belarus were active in the invasion. Belarus became an active participant in the war. Sanctions imposed by several countries around the world also affected Belarus. After the attack from Belarus failed, Alexander Lukashenko has attempted to keep Belarus as far removed from the war as possible. He recently gave Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a guarantee that Belarus would not attack Ukraine, and that Russian forces in Belarus would not attack from the Belarusian territory. These assurances were given after Ukraine made it clear that Belarus could be drawn directly into the war in the event of an attack from Belarus. Since this assurance was given, Russian drone attacks from Belarus have decreased significantly.
Putin is now trying to pressure Lukashenko into several things. These include allowing Russia to use Belarus for both military attacks and drone strikes. Putin is also trying to pressure Lukashenko into accepting that Belarus be used in hybrid warfare against Poland and the Baltic states.
It is clear that Lukashenko does not want this. There are several reasons why he fears what might happen if Belarus is actively drawn into the war on Putin’s side. Lukashenko sees the extensive damage Ukrainian drones and missiles are causing deep inside Russia. Belarus is hardly capable of defending its airspace. This would result in heavy losses for Belarus.
Putin’s leverage
Belarus is a country that depends on Russia in several areas. Among other things, economically. The country is allowed to purchase cheap Russian oil and gas, as well as receive other direct economic subsidies. Russian support is, of course, contingent on a government friendly to Russia and a president who is responsive to Putin.
The people of Belarus are hardly on Russia’s side in the war. The vast majority of the population wants Belarus to have better relations with Western Europe. After the last presidential election, large-scale protests broke out in the aftermath of the vote. Lukashenko was declared the winner of an election that was not fair. Lukashenko’s opponents were imprisoned or forced to flee. Read my blog post about the 2020 election. Despite this, Lukashenko likely lost the election by a wide margin, but direct manipulation and control over the military and the judiciary mean that he remains in office as president. However, Lukashenko fears another major uprising among the people. Belarus’s active participation in the war on the Russian side will not be met with cheers from the citizens.
Lukashenko knows that Putin’s support is absolutely crucial to his holding on to power in Belarus. On the one hand, Lukashenko has Putin to consider. On the other hand, he has a people who are unlikely to accept Belarus being drawn even further into the war. A dilemma for Lukashenko. The question is what Lukashenko can do. He has two options: ignore Putin or give in to pressure. If he gives in, Belarus will be drawn directly into the war. If he manages to say no to Putin, Russia will react in one way or another. This could take the form of economic measures, such as cutting off Russian oil and gas supplies. It could also be the most dramatic scenario: a military removal of Lukashenko as president.
Sources:
The New Voice of Ukraine: Russia is pressuring Belarus to open a new front against Ukraine