Ukrainian offensive shakes Russia
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For several weeks, Ukraine has made great progress at the front in the south. It is reported that over 600 square kilometers have been recaptured. Several military experts previously believed that Ukraine’s goals are strategic and part of improving its negotiating position in any peace talks. It has also been suggested that Ukraine’s goal may be to prevent a Russian offensive in the south this summer. A growing number of experts now believe that progress is continuing because Russia’s lines of defense are collapsing in some areas. Ukraine’s goal is now probably to cut the Russian supply lines to Crimea by land. Crimea is then completely dependent on the bridge connection.
An offensive from Ukraine, why?
It’s possible that what’s happening at the front now is the start of a major offensive. “Spring is a time when it is easier to conduct an offensive, due to climatic conditions. In winter, large areas in the south of Ukraine are often very muddy and difficult to traverse. In summer, the ground is often hard and far easier to use in an offensive.
Russia has lost access to Starlink, making communication and navigation very difficult for them. Ukraine is taking advantage of this. Feel free to read my blog about this. Problems for the Russians to communicate, give orders and exchange information have become a problem for them.
What does Ukraine want to achieve?
What is called the southern front are the areas of Kherson, Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk. The offensive takes place in the border areas between Zaporizhzhya / Dnipropetrovsk.
This front is very important. Ukraine wants to reach the Sea of Azov. If they do so, the Russian supply lines to Crimea via land are impossible. If Ukraine reaches the Azov Sea, the bridge from the Russian mainland to Crimea will be exposed. At the very least, all transportation across the bridge will be highly vulnerable to Ukrainian drones and missiles.
If Ukraine’s offensive reaches all the way down to the Sea of Azov, the Russian forces in Crimea will in practice be completely isolated. Shipping military personnel and equipment by ship will also be very difficult for Russia. Both because the Azov Sea is so shallow that ships with heavy cargo will be very difficult. Ukraine has also removed much of the Russian capacity that existed in the Black Sea.
If Ukraine succeeds in its offensive and reaches the Sea of Azov, it will be a big change.
Sources:
The new voice of Ukraine: Ukraine counterattacks disrupt Russia’s plans for 2026 offensive – ISW