Syria fell, why Russia failed Assad
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In a matter of days, the regime in Syria fell. Russia and Iran were no longer able to support Bashar al-Assad. A couple of events at the same time made this possible. Russia’s role in the Middle East has been severely weakened. What happens next in Syria remains to be seen. However, the balance of power in the area has changed. President Assad has reportedly fled to Moscow.
Assad sacrificed for Ukraine and Hezbollah
Russian and Iranian presence has been crucial to Bashar al-Assad retaining power in Syria after 2016. The military presence of Russian forces and the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah ensured that the dictator retained power. After ISIS was defeated and a form of peace was established between the other parties, the situation was stable for several years.
The jihadist forces in northern Syria saw their opportunity to take positions through a surprise attack. This was made possible by Russia’s warfare in Ukraine and the fact that Hezbollah had to concentrate on its positions in Lebanon. Syria was left more weakened than it had been for a long time. Aleppo fell quickly. The world saw that the jihadist offensive received very little resistance from Syrian forces. Nor was Russia interested or able to stop the advance. City by city fell rather quickly. Last night, the capital Damascus itself fell.
The question many are asking is what happens next. Russia is clearly not able to defend its Russian-friendly regime. Nor is Iran. Both of these parties are prioritizing other areas. Syria is prioritizing Lebanon and Russia has more than enough to do in Ukraine.
The future of Syria
Democracy is hardly on the cards in Syria now. Bashar al-Assad’s regime stayed in power thanks to foreign support and the use of force. The region does not have a tradition of democracy and a Jihadist regime is unlikely to make Syria democratic either. What is crucial is that the various groups respect each other and have their place when the future of the war-torn country is decided. It is the people who overthrew the hated regime, the way forward must be designed to unite the country.
Russia and Iran have lost their influence in Syria. Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have apparently supported the rebels and must be seen as the winners against this background. Establishing a reconciliatory platform for future peace is important. The fear is that this is not the end of the conflict in Syria, but rather the start of a new wave of conflicts. The questions surrounding the Kurds and other minorities hang in the air.
Russia the big loser
It’s not just because Russia is losing influence in the region that it is the loser. Perhaps far more serious are the signals to the outside world. Russia’s ability and interest in protecting a friendly regime has its limitations. It gives the impression of a country that others cannot fully trust.
Russia’s almost impossible task of defending Bashar al-Assad is also indicative of the problems Putin has in Ukraine. Putin had to prioritize between two conflicts. He opted out of his loyalty to Syria. It’s possible that Putin thinks the war in Ukraine is coming to an end with Trump as the new president. It is possible that he considers it more important to take Ukrainian territories now and, together with Trump, force Ukraine into a favorable peace agreement with Russia. It is therefore possible that Putin will do something about Syria once such a peace agreement is in place.
But whatever the reason for Putin’s betrayal of Bashar al-Assad, it shows a weakness. This weakness is being noticed. Russia’s support for other regimes can be very dangerous.