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The US and Russia have secretly agreed on a peace plan that in reality is a pure Ukrainian capitulation. Ukraine is being pressured by Trump to accept this peace plan within days. If not, all arms exports from the US to Ukraine will be stopped and all sharing of military intelligence will be halted. The 28 points of this peace agreement are in effect depriving Ukraine of sovereignty over its own country. This is a declaration of capitulation.

The 28 points

Axios has an overview of the 28 points and I will comment on what is directly related to Ukraine. I use the word capitulation to describe the agreement.

1. 1. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed.
2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be signed between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the past 30 years will be considered resolved.
3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries and that NATO will not expand further.
4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, with the United States as mediator, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.
5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.
6. The strength of the Ukrainian armed forces will be limited to 600,000.
7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not become a member of NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.
8. NATO has agreed not to station troops in Ukraine.
9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.
10. The US guarantees: The United States will receive compensation for the guarantee; if Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee; if Russia invades Ukraine, all global sanctions will be reimposed in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this agreement will be revoked; if Ukraine fires a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed null and void.
11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will be granted short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is considered.
12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to: The creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centers, and artificial intelligence. The United States will work with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernize, and operate Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities. Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas for the restoration, reconstruction and modernization of cities and residential areas. Infrastructure development. Extraction of minerals and natural resources. The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these measures.
13. Russia will be reintegrated into the world economy: The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed in stages and on a case-by-case basis. The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the fields of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal mining projects in the Arctic and other mutually beneficial business opportunities. Russia will be invited to join the G8 again.
14. Frozen funds will be used as follows: $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine; the US will receive 50% of the profits from these efforts. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be thawed. The rest of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russia investment project that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will aim to strengthen relations and increase common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.
15. A joint U.S.-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this Agreement.
16. Russia will enshrine its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine in law.
17. The US and Russia will agree to extend the validity of nuclear non-proliferation and control treaties, including the START I Treaty.
18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear weapon state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
19. The Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant will be commissioned under the supervision of the IAEA, and the electricity produced will be divided equally between Russia and Ukraine – 50:50.
20. Both countries commit to implementing educational programs in schools and communities aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice: Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and protection of linguistic minorities. Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education. (Note: Similar ideas were included in Trump’s peace plan for Israel-Palestine in 2020). All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and banned.
21. Territories: Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, also by the US. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact. Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions. Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone.
22. Having agreed on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment.
23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be signed on the free transportation of grain across the Black Sea.
24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve remaining issues: All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on the principle of ‘all for all’. All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children. A family reunification program will be implemented. Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of the victims of the conflict.
25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.
26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make claims or consider complaints in the future.
27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, chaired by President Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will be imposed in case of violation.
28. Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will enter into force immediately after both sides withdraw to agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement.

Why a capitulation?

“The entire peace plan is a victory for Russia on all counts. The agreement largely facilitates the US making money from the war. The agreement is a victory for Russia and a capitulation for Ukraine. My objections to the agreement, which is a pure capitulation, are these:

• Ukraine was attacked by Russia on February 24, 2022. For Ukraine to give away large parts of its territory to the aggressive party is against all international law. It is also strange that the nuclear power produced in Zaporizhzhia should be divided 50-50 between the parties.
• “Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees,” says the agreement. Such a reliable security guarantee has already been given when Ukraine was pressured to give up its nuclear weapons to Russia in 1994. At that time, Russia, the US and the UK provided guarantees for Ukraine’s borders. The agreement does not say anything about what these security guarantees are. The agreement can be interpreted to mean that fighter jets from Europe will be stationed in Poland as part of this security guarantee. The security guarantee from 1994 was not worth anything. One of the parties invaded Ukraine, the other two did little with their guarantees.
• According to the plan, there will be an amnesty for war crimes. That is, amnesty for the rape of women and children and executions of Ukrainian civilians.
• Why should Ukraine reduce its army? It was Russia that attacked Ukraine, not the other way around. Russia should be the one to reduce its arms and reduce its long-range chisels that have killed thousands of civilians in Ukraine.
• The US will receive 50% of the profits from the frozen funds that are invested in Ukraine. In other words, the US will take 50% of the return as I interpret it. This is a direct robbery of Ukraine.
• A working group from the US and Russia will be established to address security issues based on the agreement. Why is Ukraine not included?
• The agreement states that prisoners will be exchanged and released. This also applies to children. The agreement says nothing about the thousands of adopted Ukrainian children. The term prisoners and hostages is used, but not adopted.
• According to the agreement, Ukraine must hold elections within 100 days. This makes me wonder how a democratic election can take place in such a short time. It is clear that Russia will try to install a Russia-friendly president. The shorter the time, the less time to resist the Russian propaganda.

Surrender with the goodwill of the USA

In this peace plan, Russia wins all its points. Ukraine is forced to capitulate. NATO expansion will not take place. Russia will take over a large area of an independent country and will determine much of Ukraine’s policy. Thank you Trump, you dream of a peace prize, forget it.

Such an agreement would enable Russia to gain full control of Ukraine in several ways. Through pre-election propaganda and through so-called internal uprisings in Ukraine. We saw green men without identity appear in Crimea in 2014 and we saw Russian-backed rebels take control of parts of Donbas.

Trump’s peace plan is not a peace plan. It is a declaration of capitulation.

Sources:

Reuters: Zelenskiy ready for ‘honest’ work on US-backed plan as Europeans push back

The Ukrainian Review

Axios: Trump’s full 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan