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Ukraine carries out a major counter-offensive in the Kursk Oblast in Russia. At the same time, there are reports of a major attack on the military airport in Lipetsk. The attack on the air base is not surprising. It adds to the series of successful attacks on Russian air bases, ammunition depots and oil storage facilities. The big question is what Ukraine wants to achieve by entering with troops, tanks and armored vehicles deep into the Russian side.

Moving the front line away from Sumy

By taking control of areas on the Russian side of the border, parts of the frontline are moved further away from the large city of Sumy in Ukraine. Through 2.5 years of war, the city has been exposed to constant Russian attacks. The city was also occupied by the Russians for a period just after the war started. By moving the front line eastwards, Sumy becomes somewhat safer.

The psychological explanation

From a purely psychological point of view, a counterattack on the Russian side is important. In part, it is important for Ukrainians to get a sense that the military is making progress, including at the front line. Throughout the summer, the news from the front has primarily been about small Russian advances, with enormous costs for the Russians. It is important for Ukraine to show progress.

Psychologically, it is also important for Ukraine to show ordinary Russians what this actually is. It’s a bloody war with hundreds of thousands killed. By entering Russia, Ukraine hopes that the ordinary Russian understands what Ukrainians have been subjected to for over 2 years. The war has come to the Russians’ doorstep.

The tactical explanation for the Ukrainian counteroffensive

Ukraine probably knows where to launch a counteroffensive. It is obvious that the Russian front lines were poorly prepared with poorly trained soldiers. Just as they exploited a similar situation at Kharkiv in the past, they exploited the same vulnerability at Sumy. Like Kharkiv, Ukrainian progress is happening fast.

Ukraine wants Russia to use troops that are further south at the front to defend the areas that Ukraine has taken control of. For Ukraine, defending a front line inside Russia is no more difficult than defending the front line in its own country. For the Russians, this means that the number of elite soldiers will probably have to be spread over a larger area. The pressure on the front in Donbas and Kharkiv will be reduced.

Short counteroffensive or long-term?

How long the counteroffensive will last and how far into Ukraine it will actually go is the question. Perhaps the goal is to cut Russian supply lines. Among other things, Ukrainian forces are now very close to the E-38, which is a very important route for the movement of Russian troops to and from the border.

Sources:

Russian Forces Are Advancing In The Donbas. Ukraine’s Response? Invade Russia. (rferl.org)

Ukraine updates: ‘Massive drone attack’ hits Russian airbase – DW – 08/09/2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)