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What does the war between Israel and Iran mean for Ukraine?

What does the war between Israel and Iran mean for Ukraine?

15. June 2025 Oddi Comments 0 Comment

Dette innlegget er også tilgjengelig i: Norsk bokmål Русский Українська

Iran has given large quantities of weapons to Russia. These are used in Putin’s war against Ukraine. According to the Washington Post, the country is preparing to send launch pads for missiles. These launchers will significantly increase Russia’s capacity to hit targets in Ukraine. The war that has broken out between Israel and Iran could put an end to continued arms aid to Russia.

Weapons from Iran to Russia

I enlisted the help of ChatGPT to find out what weapons Iran has sent to Russia. The answer is this:

Drones

  • ~2,000 Iranian-made Shahed-136/131 drones and 18 Mohajer-6 drones have been delivered since early 2022
  • Ukraine reports over 1,000 such drones, with Western intel citing up to ~3,000 total, including kits sent directly and to support Russia’s local production .
  • Russia now also builds these domestically in Tatarstan using Iranian designs, with targets of 6,000 drones/year by mid-2025

Artillery Ammunition

  • Over 300,000 artillery shells and approx. 1 million rounds of small-arms ammo have been shipped to Russia in recent shipments
  • Additional supplies include limited numbers of 120 mm mortar mines and 152 mm shells

Ballistic Missiles

Iran
Iranian Fath – 110 Photo: Hossein Velayati – License under: CC BY 4.0
  • Around 400 short-range ballistic missiles (Fateh-110 family, including Zolfaghar) were transferred in January/February 2024, per multiple Reuters/Euractiv sources
  • There are ongoing reports that Iran may also be sending Fath-360 missiles and launchers, though confirmed numbers aren’t available yet

Launchers & Infrastructure

  • Iran is reportedly preparing to send Fath-360 missile launchers, boosting Russia’s deployment capability.
  • Joint efforts include constructing a drone production plant at Alabuga and training personnel to operate Iranian systems

Arms assistance enabled Israel with an attack

An attack from Israel was something Iran did not want. It probably came at the worst possible time. Tehran has tried to keep a low profile in the war on Gaza. They didn’t like the Hamas terrorist attack in the fall of 2023 that led to the war we have today. Iran showed that a conflict between them and Israel could be the consequence.

The country had sent large quantities of its own weapons to Russia. Weapons that Russia desperately needed in their assault on the neighboring country. After the war between Hamas and Israel started, supplies to Russia have virtually stopped. They need the weapons themselves.

The country has also received weapons from Russia. Primarily Russian-produced air defense. This air defense is in part completely knocked out by Israel, which causes great concern in Moscow. When faced with Western high technology, the air defense was poor.

Will Russia support its friend?

The question many are asking is whether Russia will in any way support the regime in Tehran if it moves towards a regime change. Does Russia actually have the military capacity and if so, what consequences will this have for the front in Ukraine?

The situation in the Middle East is difficult and unclear. Russia had no resources to use to stop the takeover in Syria. Iran is even more important to Russia, but it is unlikely to be able to help here either. Russia’s entire focus is on Ukraine. The war has cost Putin dearly. Russia is not a major player in the Middle East after Syria’s rapid fall. Russia’s influence in the region has been weakened.

Sources:

Ukrinform: Israel-Iran war and what impact it may have on Russia’s war in Ukraine

The Times Of Israel: Iran displays Russian-made long-range air defense systems in military exercises

Defense Blog: Iran’s air defense failure sends shockwaves to Russia

The Washington Post: Russia’s deadly drone industry upgraded with Iran’s help, report says

FDD: Iran Sends Russia Artillery Ammunition

Iranintl: Iran Sends Russia Hundreds Of Ballistic Missiles – Reuters

Reuters: Exclusive: Iran to send Russia launchers for short-range missiles, sources say

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