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A week ago, a drone was spotted near Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany. A drone carrying an explosive device was discovered by chance next to a Ukrainian AN-124 transport aircraft. The explosive device likely had a malfunction. The questions I’m asking are: What happened? Why? And why was the response time from NATO and Germany so long? The suspicion, of course, is that Russia attempted to blow up a Ukrainian transport aircraft at the airport.

Which airport is Leipzig/Halle?

The airport is the largest and most important airport for cargo transport in the entire EU. Among other things, it serves as the main hub for DHL, which transports a large portion of goods throughout Europe. It is also an important military airport. Leipzig/Halle Airport plays a key role in NATO’s logistics and the transport of military equipment in Europe. The airport is vital for the transport of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.

The AN-124 is a large transport aircraft. Ukraine and NATO have entered into a partnership under which these aircraft can also be used to transport NATO equipment that cannot fit into other types of transport aircraft. Under this agreement, Ukraine uses the airport and the aircraft to transport weapons and military equipment to Ukraine, in exchange for NATO being able to use the aircraft for large-scale military transport operations when needed.

Blow up a plane with ammunition?

The plane was likely fully loaded with ammunition when the unexploded explosive charge was found. Some of it had fallen off during flight, which is why the explosive charge did not detonate.

If the plane had been blown up, with ammunition, rockets, and other explosives on board, the damage would have been enormous. It would likely have struck the entire airport and destroyed it forever. The destruction of military transport planes would have been extensive. Perhaps most serious of all, however, are the consequences for the areas surrounding the airport. We can only shudder to think of the extent of the damage in the city of Leipzig.

What motives might Russia have had for blowing up the transport plane?

Of course, this is merely speculation regarding the motive behind the bombing of a transport plane. But it must be viewed in the context of the war against Ukraine and NATO’s military aid to Ukraine.

The most likely scenario is that Russia wants to reduce the willingness to provide military aid to Ukraine through such an attack. Russia’s hope is that Germany and other NATO countries will realize that the cost of continuing to support Ukraine is too high. It’s easy to imagine that the drone carrying the explosive charge was not intended to be detonated, but was sent as a signal that Russia is capable of doing this. The goal, in that case, is the same: to spread fear in Germany and other NATO countries in order to weaken support for Ukraine. It is also possible that Russia actually wanted to test NATO’s reaction time—to see how long it took from the time the drone was detected until NATO and Germany responded, as well as to assess the nature of that response.

NATO’s Inertia

Of course, it may be that we won’t find out everything about the incident. Nor will we know what actions Germany and NATO have taken or are taking in response to Russia. That is, of course, assuming that they are indeed the ones behind it.

As things stand now, one thing seems certain: NATO and Germany’s response time is very poor. It seems strange that more than a week would pass without a response. This does little to inspire confidence in NATO.

The fact that an explosive device was found at such a critical airport is in itself a scandal that raises many questions. How did the drone get in without being detected? Where did it come from? Are there perhaps Russian agents among the airport staff? Maybe we’ll find out the answers—but most likely not.

Sources:

Wikipedia: Antonov An-124 Ruslan

Euro News: Explosive Drone: Why Leipzig/Halle Airport Keeps Becoming a Target for Sabotage

Reuters: Top German prosecutor leads drone investigation into suspected attack on national security

Wikipedia: Leipzig/Halle Airport