Referendum on the annexation of most of Guyana
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Since 1899, Venezuela has considered an area in neighboring Guyana as its territory. The conflict has flared up over the area of Essequibo, which makes up 2/3 of the whole of Guyana, has flared up regularly since the borders were decided by an international arbitration.
Oil, gold and gas
The area that is rich in oil and gold and most of Guyana’s exports come from this area. Guyana is completely dependent on the revenue from Essequibo.
It is likely that these riches, combined with the presidential election in 2024, will make President Nicolas Maduro want to hold this referendum. He is a very unpopular president who won the sordid presidential election which was criticized for electoral fraud. The economic condition of Venezuela is very difficult, which in turn makes the president unpopular with large sections of the population. Thousands of inhabitants have also fled the country, which has a shortage of most things, including food. A common project around which the country can rally will be useful for an embattled president.
The referendum on Guyana in 5 points
In reality, this is a referendum on annexing most of the neighboring country. The people of Venezuela must tick five points on the electoral card whether they say yes or no. These 5 points are, among other things, whether Venezuela should consider the pre-1899 borders as valid and whether the people will allow the area and its inhabitants to obtain citizenship from Venezuela.
Neither President Maduro nor the government has said how they will incorporate the area. But Guyana sees this as an attempt to annex the area and has objected to the referendum.
For Guyana, the loss of Essequibo would mean an extreme economic collapse. How the rest of Latin America and the world will react to a possible military conflict, we can only speculate. It is likely that Venezuela will not receive much international support.
A referendum on the annexation of another country’s territories is of course not in accordance with international law. But for a president desperate to retain power after the presidential election, a conflict can be unifying.
Sources:
UN court says it can hear Guyana-Venezuela border dispute | AP News