Will Azerbaijan take southern Armenia?
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The war in Nagorno-Karabakh is over. The area in Azerbaijan has probably been taken back. Nagorno-Karabakh is a disputed area. This belonged to Azerbaijan, but most of the population there were Armenians. This caused the population there to rebel against Azerbaijan and install their own acid. The small area was supported by Armenia and Russia. The majority of the people there would be an independent country or belong to Armenia. There have been many smaller conflicts over Nagorno-Karabakh in the last 30 years. Last a couple of years ago. Azerbaijan then took control of areas just outside Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia deployed 2,000 peacekeeping troops to secure the area.
Southern Armenia
Armenia fears that Azerbaijan will continue to take Armenian territories. The reason for this fear is that Azerbaijan has an area that is cut off from the rest of the country (Exclave). Azerbaijan has long asked for a corridor through Armenian areas to get a connection to Nakhchivan, which is the name of the area. Armenia has denied this all along.
Many now believe that Azerbaijan will create a corridor itself or take parts of southern Armenia to get a connection with Nakhchivan. How easily they finally took control of Nagorno-Karabakh may mean that the temptation to take part of Armenian territory is great.
A religious conflict with historical undertones
Most people in Azerbaijan are Muslim. Most people in Armenia are Christians. Azerbaijan is supported by Turkey and Iran. Armenia of Russia. Armenia’s trauma is of course the genocide of Armenians committed by what is today Turkey. Feel free to read my blog about this. Up to 1.5 million Armenians were killed. Several countries call this a genocide. Azerbaijan is a country with a long tradition of religious and cultural connection with Turkey. For Armenians, this is therefore not exclusively a question of territories, but also a question of the most important thing. The question of a people’s existence and right to self-determination.
Armenia is a small and poor country. They have been largely dependent on Russia’s support. The disappointment among Armenians is now very great towards Russia. When Azerbaijan attacked Nagorno-Karabakh, the Russian forces offered no resistance. Why not? Perhaps because the experience from a couple of years ago is still fresh in the memory. Back then, Azerbaijan with the support of Turkish weapons became far too strong. Russia suffered heavy losses. Another factor is of course the war in Ukraine. Russia has suffered such heavy losses there that it was unwilling to take further losses to defend Armenia’s interests.
The Caucasus a dilemma for Russia
The area is located in the Caucasus. An area Russia would like to control. The problem is that Iran and Turkey also have interests in the area. Georgia, which is also a country in the same area, Russia has great problems keeping in its sphere. After Russia’s actual military attack on Georgia, which led to the creation of a couple of Russian-backed enclaves in the country, relations between them have been chilly. Georgia wants to join both the EU and NATO.
Armenia has recently sought more and more contact with Western Europe. Perhaps this is also one of the reasons for Russia’s reluctance to help Armenia when Azerbaijan attacked Nagorno-Karabakh. But this is a dangerous policy on Putin’s part. The credibility of Russian support is constantly decreasing in the country. Putin is about to lose Armenia too.
Sources:
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – Wikipedia
Armenia ratifies Rome Statute, defying Russia | The Eurasian
End of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict holds hope for new beginnings | Financial Times