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Completely without any attention in the Norwegian media, a new drama unfolds in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine over the Crimean peninsula. The battle for water from the Dnieper. Following Russia’s annexation of the peninsula in 2014, Ukraine shut off its water supply. Water shortages could lead to another major war in central Europe.

Water shortage since 2014

Crimea has little natural water itself. The water Crimea previously received was through an artificial water channel from the river Dnieper, which flows through Ukraine and into the Black Sea. After Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Ukraine shut off this water supply. The problems for Russia are big. Lack of water is a recurring problem. Recently, Russia complained to Ukraine to the United Nations to end the water supply shutdown. The UN has previously said through resolutions that a natural water source such as a river should not be stopped for the countries below. The problem for Russia is that this is not a natural water source, but an artificially constructed canal.

The costs of Russia’s annexation are enormous. The island is not landlocked to Russia, only to Ukraine. Russia has therefore built a bridge from the Russian mainland over to Ukraine. The Kerch Bridge cost enormous sums. Large expenses are also associated with shipping goods to the area. Russia is trying to drill wells for water, but little has been found. As a result of the lack of water, agriculture on the peninsula has also had reduced yields, which affects the Russian economy. Of great importance to the economy of Crimea was tourism. This is now greatly reduced after the Ukrainian tourists do not come. There are, however, a few more Russians coming to the peninsula as tourists, but this is no less than the loss of Ukrainians. Tourism from other countries has also failed after the annexation.

Russian military action?

There is increasing speculation about a Russian military action to gain access to water from Ukraine. Ukraine has no military means to fight back the Russian annexation of Crimea and is therefore trying to regain control of the area by peaceful means. It’s clear to me that Russia misjudged Ukraine’s water supply, or possibly the original plan was to take a bigger chunk of Ukraine than they actually did.

After the annexation of Crimea, the conflict started over the eastern areas of Ukraine that are referred to as Donbas. According to maps from the Russian-backed rebels, they would have control over half of Ukraine, i.e. the areas east of the Dnieper. But Ukraine managed to reorganize its own defense and has inflicted far greater losses on Russia in the Donbas than Russia itself calculated.

Now it is being speculated whether Russia will try to take a piece of Ukraine by connecting Crimea to the Dnieper. In such an operation, the city of Kherson will be central. The city has 329,000 inhabitants. A little west of the Dnieper’s outlet is also the large port city of Mykolaiv with over 500,000 inhabitants.

Sources:

Atlantic Council

Dagsavisen: Future conflicts are about water

Geopolitical Monitor: Backgrounder: The wather crises in Crimea