US presidential election seen from Europe
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It’s time for the world’s most important election. Of course, it’s the US presidential election. Who will be the next US president, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. Seen from Western Europe, this is an election about democracy, an election about Western values and an election to avoid an erratic president. Like so many elections in history, it’s being touted as the most important. I will explain why I and most people in Western Europe want Kamala Harris as president.
Trump, the undemocratic president
With what happened after the last presidential election fresh in my mind, the thought of a second term with Donald Trump is not very tempting. Although I question how real democracy is in the US in general, anything other than Trump is preferable. Donald Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election results is unworthy of a serious political party with a democratic tradition. The storming of the Congress building in connection with the inauguration was an attempted coup. Feel free to read my blog about this.
In this election, we keep seeing that Trump is moving in the direction of admiration for dictators. His statement that political opponents should be shot shows attitudes we have not seen before in democratic countries. What happens if he loses the election remains to be seen. It is likely that he will once again not accept defeat.
Something that makes me have reservations about describing the American electoral system as democratic in general is its dependence on private donors. Both parties have major celebrities and very rich Americans as contributors. The idea that the parties are in some kind of debt to the donors is there. I consider this to be as close to corruption as it is possible to get.
The world with Trump as president
What will happen if Trump is elected after the US presidential election? We don’t really know. But there is reason to believe that Trump will put pressure on Ukraine to accept a peace agreement with Putin that Ukraine cannot accept. There is also a great risk that the combination of Trump and Israel is unlikely to be particularly favorable to the Palestinians.
Trump’s relationship with NATO was marked by conflict during his presidency from 2016 to 2020. Clearly, he does not see the benefit of a united NATO and a strong Western defense. The possibility of the US pulling out of NATO is real. Then the situation in Europe will have changed completely. Putin’s expansion is unlikely to stop in Kyiv.
Trump’s relationship to the conflict in the Middle East is also a question. It is likely that Trump will give Israel even greater powers for its war than Biden has given them. A more aggressive Israel with even greater support from the US could set fire to the entire region. A direct confrontation between Israel and Iran is very likely. This will in turn draw Russia into an even more active role on Iran’s side.
A greater focus on the South China Sea than on Europe is also conceivable under Donald Trump. This is not favorable from a European perspective.
Presidential elections, tariff walls and the economy
Donald Trump wants to introduce a number of tariffs to protect jobs in the US. Tariffs of 20-50% are mentioned. I understand that tariffs on certain products may be appropriate. However, such an economic policy can be counterproductive. The US is faced with similar tariff walls elsewhere. The tariffs are ultimately paid by consumers, who have to pay more for the products. This in turn can lead to a reduction in trade.
It’s also worth noting that Trump wants to use the money raised through tariffs to reduce taxes for businesses in the US. Such a policy is obviously good news for the stock market, but bad news for ordinary Americans.
Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/04/us-presidential-election-trump-harris-updates