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Then what I thought happened. The world gets to experience Trump’s second term as president after an overwhelming victory. The US election for Congress, Senate and President is really a judgment on Joe Biden. I really think Joe Biden did a good job as president in a very difficult time. But a couple of things made people lose confidence in him. Kamala Harris is another victim. She’s identified with the current administration that the people were fed up with. Trump’s path to a superior victory was therefore open.

Economy and immigration key to superior victory

The US economy is doing well. Inflation is on the way down, as are interest rates. There has been a real wage increase under Biden. But here’s the problem. Even with these good numbers, ordinary Americans don’t perceive this. They feel that things are getting harder and the economy is getting worse. The problem for Kamala Harris is that food prices have risen more than inflation in general. In the US, a large proportion of the population has enough money to buy food. The fact that the prices of luxury products, electronics, etc. have reduced inflation is less important to them. It’s the price of bread, butter and hamburgers that matters to them.

The fact that immigration creates frustration is not unique to the US. We see the same thing in Europe. It’s often the jobs with low incomes and low skill requirements that immigrants fill first. It is in this group that an increasing number of Americans find themselves. The feeling that people from outside the US are coming to take their jobs is understandable. Whether the feeling is right is another discussion. Kamala Harris never managed to convey how she would go about getting better control of immigration. Trump had greater credibility among low-income groups with little or no education. This was crucial in a landslide victory.

Focusing on the wrong things?

Kamala Harris and her campaign clearly emphasized the wrong issues. At least according to surveys of what voters thought were the most important issues in the election. The Democrats emphasized the abortion issue to a great extent. Perhaps the focus was a little too one-sided. The belief that women would flock to the Democratic Party for that reason did not materialize. Or maybe they actually did. Kamala Harris won the most women’s votes of the two, but the margin was small compared to her hopes.

Kamala Harris probably got a lot of votes because of the abortion issue. Thus, it was not a bad strategy. However, the problem is that other policies received less attention from her. The election was probably lost for that reason.

Even though it hurts, I have to do it. My congratulations to Trump and the Republican Party on a resounding victory.

Sources:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html