Russia wants to annex Belarus
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In December 2019, I wrote a blog about a planned union between Russia and Belarus. Recently, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published a report on this. The report states that Russia is in the final stages of a 10-year strategy to annex Belarus. ISW uses the term annex and not union. According to the report, Belarus will cease to be an independent state and will be completely subordinated to Russia.
Annex why?
According to the ISW report, work is underway towards full integration in a number of areas. ISW writes, among other things:
This includes establishing full operational and administrative control over Belarus’s armed forces in peacetime and permanent Russian military base in Belarus; a political union with a Kremlin-dominated federated government with a common set of federal laws and institutions for Belarusians and Russians to be governed as a single state formation; and a fully integrated economy complete with common markets, free flow of labor, uniform laws and a currency union.
Furthermore, ISW writes this:
The Kremlin is most likely planning to exploit Belarus’ population of 9.155 million people, Belarus’ geostrategic territory on NATO’s eastern flank and Belarusian economic resources in the service of Russian state power.
It is clear that Putin’s dream of rebuilding the old Soviet empire has begun. The dream of uniting all the old Soviet republics includes not only Belarus but also Ukraine. Putin’s brutal assault on Ukraine on February 24, 2022 must be seen in this light.
In 2020, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko was re-elected as president. An election in which the opposition was the real winner, but in good Russian and Belarusian tradition, the election was subject to undemocratic measures and cheating. Svyatlana Tsikhanovskaya was the opposition’s presidential candidate. She was the real winner according to all credible sources. She is the wife of the former leader of the opposition. He was imprisoned prior to the election. Lukashenko and Putin are close friends and both equally totalitarian. After the election, there were strong protests in Belarus. People took to the streets to protest against the election. The majority of the political opposition had to flee abroad or were arrested. Read my blog about the election.
The Baltic countries
The three Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are also part of the Kremlin’s dream of restoring old glory. These three countries are all members of NATO now. Russia’s eastward expansion is a great danger for these three countries. It is a danger to the security of the whole of Europe.
If Russia were to annex Belarus, there would also be an extremely high risk for Ukraine. Putin’s desire to annex Ukraine can be seen through Putin’s cruel war. If Belarus becomes part of Russia, Ukraine’s border with Russia will be very difficult to defend. The country will be surrounded on three sides.
An annexation of Belarus would entail a major security risk for the whole of Europe.
Sources:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russias-quiet-conquest-belarus
https://daviscenter.fas.harvard.edu/events/other-annexation-gradual-takeover-belarus-russia