Negotiations are ongoing between Russia and Belarus on some form of union. There is little information about what this union actually entails, but there is a lot of speculation.

The Union from 1999

Russia’s influence in Belarus is strong. Since 1996, the countries have been in a commonwealth between the countries, which in 1999 was expanded to become a form of union. According to this agreement from 1999, work must be done towards a common state with a common head of state and a common national assembly, a common army and a common flag and a common constitution. The interpretation of this agreement has been slightly different in Belarus and Russia after this.

New negotiations on the union are currently taking place. What the purpose is and what the outcome will be is uncertain. But there can hardly be any doubt that Russia wants an even closer bond with Belarus.

In Minsk there have been demonstrations against such an agreement. Demonstrations despite little information and censorship.

A union created for Putin

According to the Russian constitution, a president cannot serve as president for more than 2 presidential terms, i.e. 8 years. He was elected president in 2000 and served until the presidential election in 2008. Then Dmitry Medvedev took over as president for a 4-year period, while Putin was prime minister. However, there is little doubt that the real power rested with Vladimir Putin. Then in 2012, Putin was re-elected as president. Before the election in 2012, the law was changed so that a presidential term would now be 6 years. So a president could sit for 12 new years, that is until 2024. Read the online Nettavisen about this.

Few believe that Vladimir Putin will step down as Russia’s most powerful man after 2024. What is needed for him to still have the real power is several things. Changing the constitution is conceivable, creating a new position another. But perhaps the most likely is that Putin will become the leader of a new union. A union that allows him to retain power in an enlarged Russia.

Belarusian independence from Russia

You will probably have to look for a long time for a country that has made such a disposal of another country as Belarus has to Russia. Economically, Belarus is completely dependent on its large neighbor. Russian oil, for example, is sold cheaply to Belarus and then sold on at market price. A form of large-scale financial doping. Norway also used Belarus as a transit country for the export of fish during a period when Russia had restrictions on the import of Norwegian fish. The fish was sold to Belarus, and then sold on to Russia.

Censorship in both countries is strong. Belarus probably follows at least the same restrictive line as Russia when it comes to censorship, including of the internet. Russian news channels are almost absolute. Belarus has a number of Western TV channels (according to my personal Belarusian sources). This applies to both film channels such as Netflix and some Viasat channels such as Viasat History.

Belarus Europe’s last dictatorship or?

Aleksandr Lukashenko is called Europe’s last dictator. A term I do not immediately agree with. The term dictatorship is a matter of interpretation. Belarus is undoubtedly a dictatorship and rather totalitarian. I define Russia as a “modern dictatorship”. By this term, I mean a country that apparently has a democracy, but is in practice a totalitarian dictatorship. Russia apparently has free elections. But when oppositionists are imprisoned if they pose a real threat, or are refused to stand for election, it is doubtful whether our concept of democracy is present in today’s Russia. Also take into account that Putin and his party have full control over all major Russian media.

I wrote a blog recently about Russia and the opposition. There I told a little about the imprisonment of Russian oppositionists and the gagging of the opposition.

Of course, Belarus is a dictatorship and of course the president Aleksandr Lukashenko is a dictator. My claim is that Russia is a dictatorship in sheep’s clothing.

A union is the start of a new state

The way I assess it, it is probably a completely new state that Russia wants. Both among Russians and Belarusians there is opposition to such a state, but the people hardly have much to say.

Many in Russia dream of resurrecting the Soviet empire from the days of the Cold War. Belarus is a step on that path.

The Russian sphere

We hear it time and time again among some. Talked about the Russian sphere and how important it is for Russia to have a buffer zone with “friendly” countries around it. Why don’t we hear from them now? Russia is in the process of expanding its territory westwards. The threat to Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia is great. Ukraine has learned of Russia’s will and ability to hold on to the remnants of its empire.