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Several Russian drones violated the airspace of Poland on the night of September 10. At the same time as a large-scale attack on western Ukraine took place, at least 19 drones from Russia were sent into Poland. Why did Putin do this? Just a provocation or maybe something more?

Provocation, spread fear and get information

There is probably only one reason for the incident. My assessment is that there are several causes. We can disregard the fact that this is due to a software error or that the GPS signals were disrupted. The number of drones is too high for that. It is also striking that the drones had no explosive devices.

Russia carried out a deliberate provocation. The question then is what was the intention. It is hardly a coincidence that Poland was the target of the airspace violation. Most of the arms supplies to Ukraine pass through Poland.

Spreading fear in the population through provocation

Poland has a terrible history with Russia and the Soviet Union, to say the least. It was hardly a coincidence that the dissolution of the Soviet hegemony in Eastern Europe started in Poland. Feel free to read my blog about this. Today, Poland’s defense is very strong and is one of Europe’s strongest military defenses.

Putin’s message is clear. The message is that Poland cannot feel safe. A signal he wants to send to the people of Poland. Putin’s hope is that public opinion will change and not allow arms shipments to Ukraine via Poland. Part of spreading fear is also a large military exercise that will soon take place in Belarus, near the Polish border. Poles still remember that Russia’s attack on Ukraine occurred after an alleged military exercise on the border with Ukraine, as well as from Belarus. Therefore, the timing is no coincidence.

Poland is so strong militarily that Russia would hardly have any opportunity to take territory from Poland using military force. Putin knows this too. What he hopes for is to weaken Poland’s support for Ukraine, or at least to weaken Poland’s interest in shipping weapons to Ukraine via Poland.

Get information

Russia also wants to get information. First and foremost on the reaction time, how this is handled in NATO. The information they received included that aircraft from NATO countries such as Poland, Italy and the Netherlands participated in the shooting down of drones. Another answer they received was that Poland triggered Article 4 of the NATO Treaty. At the time, Russia did not want a confrontation that could trigger Article 5, because it would trigger military reactions against Russia. In other words, it’s in Putin’s interest to know how far it’s possible to go before the noose snaps.

“What we don’t know is what NATO has said to Russia. For example, what happens if this happens again, or if NATO will now shoot down drones and missiles before they have entered the airspace of NATO countries. It is conceivable that NATO will be able to shoot down elements that are heading towards a NATO country inside Ukrainian territory.

Attempt to prevent air defense to Ukraine

To me it is obvious that Putin is trying to intimidate so much that NATO countries like Poland and Romania want more air defense in their own countries. This will weaken the interest in providing adequate air defense to Ukraine.

If NATO’s response is unclear, there will almost certainly be more such actions against NATO countries in the future. Then it’s a question of when NATO has had enough and will use stricter measures.

Sources:

BBC: Poland says it shot down Russian drones after airspace violation

Reuters: Poland downs drones in its airspace, becoming first NATO member to fire during war in Ukraine

NBC News: Poland says it shot down Russian drones that violated its airspace during attack on Ukraine