The supporters of Russia’s war in Ukraine
Dette innlegget er også tilgjengelig i: Norsk bokmål Русский Українська
While Ukraine receives weapons, financial and humanitarian aid from Western countries, Russia receives far more support from its backers. Who are they and what help does Russia receive? I used ChatGPT as a tool in the analysis.
The supporters of Russia
The question I asked ChatGPT was this:
Name the 10 countries that support Russia’s war against Ukraine the most. Weapons and financial support. Start with no. 10 and take one and one country upwards. End with no. 1. Justification and analysis.
These are the answers:
10. Myanmar
Partly direct support
– Myanmar’s military junta has sold 120 mm mortar rounds used by Russian forces in Ukraine
– The role is less extensive than that of the main actors, but forms part of the support picture.
9. Maldives
Technology circumvention remediation engine
– The Maldives has acted as an intermediary for microchips and printed circuit boards to Russia – including US$ 53 million in US-made semiconductors.
– Critical to helping Russia circumvent Western sanctions.
8. India
Economic support through energy trade and tech exports
– Buys Russian oil and fertilizer for ~27 billion USD (2022-23), both purchase and refining funded by Moscow
– Indirect military support through export of AI servers and dual-use technologies (~$300 million)
7. UAE / Gulf-states
Drone redirection and technology transfers
– Re-exports drones to Russia, e.g. via the UAE to Russia.
– An important channel for weapons supply in a global trade network.
6. Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan)
Raw material suppliers and transit corridors
– Exports bomb-making materials such as gunpowder, circumvents sanctions using old Soviet networks.
– Important for arms production in Russia.
5. Syria, Lebanon (Hezbollah), Eritrea
Unclear level, but participates via mouthpieces and ideological support
– Asymmetrical support through ideological alliance, possibly PMCs or advisors.
– Not main suppliers, but forms “auxiliary” support.
4. Belarus
Co-belligerent: terrain, weapons, logistics
– Allows Russian missiles, drones and tactical nuclear infrastructure.
– President Lukashenko has declared loyal support – the country is considered fully participating.
3. Iran
Supplier of drones and ballistic missiles
– Iranian Shahed drones (“Geran”) make up the bulk of Russia’s drone strikes, – – IRGC operations in Crimea
– Bread from support since 2022, legally under the control of multiple sanctions.
2. North Korea
Ammunition, missiles and troops in Russia
– Has delivered millions of grenades, Koksan howitzers, ballistic missiles, 10-15,000 soldiers and traction
– Kim has declared “unconditional support”
Strategic partner and dual-use infrastructure
– “No limits” partnership, 90% of microelectronics for fuel, machine tools, drone components come from China.
– Critical for Russia’s weapons production in 2024-25 – satellite data, railway equipment. US officials consider this crucial.
Analysis and summary
China maintains a strategic bandwidth – financial, technical and material support – that indirectly strengthens Russia’s industrial capacity without formally supplying weapons (dual-use).
North Korea represents military support on the ground, munitions and technology on a massive scale.
Iran has become a central weapons depot for drones and missiles with IRGC operations.
Belarus acts as a co-belligerent state – providing infrastructure and airspace.
5-10. Support from Myanmar, the Maldives, India, the Gulf States, and Central Asia is more fragmented, but constitutes important aspects of sanctions relief or direct material support.
My assessment of the supporters
My review is fairly similar to ChatGPT’s review. However, it differs slightly on a couple of points. Belarus is, in my opinion, at the top of the list of supporters. The reason is that the country was actively involved in allowing Russia to attack Ukraine from Belarus when the full-scale invasion started on February 24, 2022. This means that Belarus was in practice directly involved in the attack.
I have my doubts as to whether ChatGPT has realized that Assad’s regime has fallen in Syria. Whether the new regime supports Russia to the same extent, I am very doubtful.
Among Russia’s supporters, the Maldives is also mentioned. This is a country that for many has gone a little under the radar for its support. Feel free to read my previous blog about this.
Sources:
The Sunday Times: The weapon transforming Putin’s air war – with help from his allies
Wikipedia: North Korean involvement in the Russian invasion of Ukraine