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Ukraine presented a sketch that says something about what it intends to do with Crimea after the peninsula is recaptured. In the sketch, it is said that Russians who have settled after Russia’s annexation are to be deported. That their assets should be taken, that the bridge that Russia has built to Crimea should be dismantled and that Ukrainians who have cooperated with Russia should be prosecuted. It was Oleksiy Danilov who is the secretary of Ukraine’s Security and Defense Council who presented the plan.

A recaptured Crimea also means taking Sevastopol

The big problem for Ukraine on the Crimean peninsula is Sevastopol. This is where Russia has had its largest naval base on the Black Sea for 200 years. Russia was also to have a base there in the future, according to the agreement that was concluded when Ukraine became independent. This now appears to be impossible for a Crimea that is being recaptured by Ukraine. The wounds from what happened in 2014 are too great. Feel free to read my blog about the annexation of Crimea. It was with the starting point in the military base at Sevastopol that green men with no visible marks on their uniforms took over public buildings. It was this that ultimately led to Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

Losing Crimea and Sevastopol would be a huge defeat for the Kremlin. Sevastopol is the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. A loss of this maritime base would mean a weakened Russia throughout the Black Sea region.

The Kerch Bridge is to be dismantled

The Kerch Bridge, or the Crimean Bridge, is in many ways the very symbol of the annexation of Crimea. The huge bridge was built to connect Crimea to the Russian mainland. The bridge is 19 kilometers long and both cars and trains can pass on the bridge. The bridge became famous in autumn 2022, when an explosion destroyed parts of the bridge.

For Ukraine, the bridge is not only a symbol of an illegal annexation, but also a real security risk. Ukraine fears that the bridge could be used to move military equipment over the bridge. The story from 2014 and from 2022 tells Ukraine about a neighbor that cannot be trusted. Ukraine cannot let the bridge stand. Dismantling the bridge is, in the same way as the naval base at Sevastopol, a safety issue.

Is it realistic to take back Crimea?

Yes, it is realistic that it is possible. But it will require an extremely large amount. Extreme numbers of soldiers will have to be sacrificed and large amounts of weapons. The first thing that needs to be done is to take back the occupied areas of Kherson. A major Ukrainian offensive is expected soon. Spring brings new weapons and conditions on the ground that can make an offensive in Kherson possible.

If Ukraine takes back Kherson, the way forward will be one of two. Either an offensive in Donbas, or to continue to Crimea. Regardless of which of these options Ukraine prioritizes first, it will be difficult for Russia. They have to choose what to put most into defending, Crimea or Donbas.

What is absolutely clear is that Ukraine aims to liberate the entire country. The plans presented show that they are thinking far ahead. Crimea, like all the occupied territories, is Ukrainian.

Sources:

Ukraine ‘ready’ to talk to Russia on Crimea if counteroffensive succeeds | Financial Times (ft.com)

Ukraine unveils plan for recaptured Crimea – but West ‘reluctant’ to help (france24.com)

Ukrainian official offers a plan Kyiv would take after it reclaims control of Crimea from Russia (cnbc.com)