Retreat of Russia from Kherson city?
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Yesterday came the message about the retreat of the Russian forces west of the Dnieper. The question is whether they actually do it or whether this is a ploy to mislead Ukrainians. What seems pretty clear is that the city will be liberated by Ukraine pretty soon. The question is whether there will be street fighting inside the city with consequent huge losses, or whether Russia actually realizes that the city has been lost.
Kherson very important
The city of Kherson is very important. There are several reasons for this. Kherson is the only regional capital Russia has managed to capture since the start of the war on 24 February. The city is strategically located on the west side of the Dnieper. Russia’s goal was originally to advance westward to gain control of the cities of Mykolaiv (population 500,000) and Odesa (population 1 million), then to have control of the entire Black Sea coastline. The city is also important for the water supply to Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014.
By forcing the Russians back to the east side of the river, Mykolaiv in particular will be safer and hopefully less vulnerable to Russian rockets.
Most important is the symbolic meaning of the city. For Ukraine, it will be another triumph, which they have had a share of this autumn. For Russia, new proof that the war is going very badly.
Skepticism about Russian retreat
From the Ukrainian side, there is skepticism about the reported Russian withdrawal. From the military point of view, it is emphasized that they relate to what is happening on the ground and the intelligence they have, not to statements. A Russian withdrawal will probably result in large parts of heavy military equipment being left behind, or having to be destroyed before the retreat. All the bridges over the Dnieper have been destroyed and only makeshift bridges can carry light equipment across the river.
In the last days before Russia’s announcement yesterday, there were rumors among Ukrainian bloggers that Russia would announce such a withdrawal, leaving some soldiers behind dressed as civilians. This will be used for propaganda purposes, where it should look as if the civilian population was fighting against Ukraine.
“We don’t know what the outcome will be. If Russia actually realises that Kherson city is lost, then it is a sensible decision. Whether it is some kind of trap to try to trick Ukraine into believing that they can take the city without a fight is probably more likely.
Sources:
Russian troops ordered to retreat from Kherson in face of Ukrainian advance | Ukraine | The Guardian
Russia announces retreat from Kherson as Ukraine alleges sabotage | The Hill