Trump with sanctions against Russia’s trading partners?
Dette innlegget er også tilgjengelig i: Norsk bokmål Русский Українська
Today is the deadline that US President Donald Trump has given Russia to avoid stronger sanctions from the US. Sanctions that target Russian trading partners are possible. To avoid these, Russia must enter into a ceasefire agreement. Such an agreement is a long way off, it seems that Putin has once again got Trump on board. A summit between Trump and Putin is supposed to be held next week. Time management is something Putin is good at. Trump is constantly allowing himself to be used in Putin’s attempts to use as much time as possible. In the meantime, thousands of people are dying.
What sanctions can the US use?
Donald Trump uses tariffs for several reasons. One reason is an attempt to get American companies that have relocated production to come back to the US. Another reason is to use tariffs to finance the enormous tax breaks given to the very richest in the US. Tariffs are also used by Trump as political pressure. For example, towards China, Brazil and Canada. One of the few countries that Trump has not imposed any tariffs on is Russia. OK, the US imports very little from Russia. Sanctions have reduced trade between them to a minimum. Still, it’s strange that Trump doesn’t use tariffs against Putin.
It has been mentioned that Trump will impose additional tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil and gas. These countries are Russia’s most important trading partners. This could accelerate an already incipient economic collapse in Russia. Oil and gas are Russia’s main source of income. Without revenues from this industry, Putin will not be able to finance his adventure in Ukraine.
Russia wants to avoid sanctions against its trading partners
Putin obviously wants to avoid Russia’s trading partners facing extra tariffs on goods entering the US. If, for example, the two major buyers of oil and gas are subjected to such sanctions, they will in practice have the choice between continuing to export to the US or not buying Russian oil and gas. Perhaps this will put pressure on China and India to force Russia to the negotiating table. What is certain is that none of these countries want to lose large parts of the US market.
Russia will try everything possible to avoid sanctions against trading partners. One possibility is for oil and gas to be exported to an intermediate country and then resold. North Korea could be a relevant transit country. The US will probably keep a close eye on this, but it won’t be easy.
The key lies with Trump
The key to a ceasefire and peace between Russia and Ukraine is in many ways in Donald Trump’s hands. He promised to end the war within 24 hours of becoming president. He failed to do so. His willingness to take action against Russia has so far been limited to threats and words.
Unless Trump actually does something, Putin will not stop his terrorist bombing of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. Hospitals, kindergartens, apartment buildings and power supply will again be exposed to Russian terrorism. The time has come for action against Putin.
Sources:
BBC: Trump and Putin to meet in coming days, Kremlin says
The Moscow Times: Putin Briefs Xi, Lukashenko and Central Asian Leaders on Witkoff Talks