Russia today claims that Ukraine attempted a “terrorist attack” on the Kremlin. Two drones have been shot down. The purpose should be to kill Putin. Ukraine refutes this. They say that Russia is probably using this as a pretext for a large-scale bombing of Ukraine. To me, it is highly unlikely that Ukraine has carried out this. I have to justify this. The suspicion of a Russian bluff is high.
The distance to the Kremlin from Ukraine
The distance from Kharkiv to Moscow as the crow flies is about 648 km. A drone that starts flying from Ukraine is unlikely to reach Moscow. The distance is long and it is unlikely that drones from there will be able to reach Moscow without being detected on the way.
Russian air defense will detect and neutralize drones flying over such large areas. The Russian air defense cannot be that weak.
The drone started in Russia
If there are indeed drones that have been shot down near the Kremlin, they probably started in Russia. Probably very close to the Kremlin too.
Of course, it is possible that Ukrainian special forces are behind it. But that is unlikely. It will be very difficult if not impossible for them to get into the heart of Moscow and started the flight of two drones from there. If they actually managed to do it, it has been sensational that they were not discovered.
A Russian bluff
Maybe this is a false flag action. That is, something that Russia has frozen itself to look like a Ukrainian attack. The hoax can be used as an explanation for a Russian revenge action. We do not know what such an action might be. It could be, for example, an assassination attempt on the Ukrainian president, or the use of weapons we have not seen until now.
Another possibility is that the alleged Ukrainian attempt to hit the Kremlin is used domestically. Hardly anything will have a more unifying effect on the people than an attempt to hit Moscow’s political center. An attempt to break the international support for Ukraine will not be achieved by Russia with its bluff.