The West’s sanctions against Russia should have come sooner
After 24 February, the EU, the US and a number of other countries have imposed heavy sanctions on the Russian economy. Sanctions that until now seem to have little effect. When Russia took Chechnya in 1999, Russia should receive reactions. After Russia’s attack on South Ossetia (Georgia) in 2008, something had to be done. The sanctions we have now, we should get in 2014.
Sanctions after 2014
In 2014, a number of sanctions against Russia will be introduced. Annexation of another country’s territories was unacceptable. Crimea was annexed, which in reality also became areas of the Donbas. The war in Ukraine that we say started on February 24, 2022, actually started in the spring of 2014.
The sanctions that were introduced at the time are mostly aimed at private individuals. It is against wealth and travel in western countries. Generals in the Russian army are among those affected by sanctions. The problem is that they had little or no wealth abroad. Nor did travel to western countries covered by the sanctions be something they did often. Other things that were affected by the sanctions were the sale of technology, especially technology that can be used militarily.
EU made dependent on Russian oil and gas
As early as 2014, parts of Europe were dependent on Russian gas. After 2014, this dependence has been made even greater. The EU is now working to become independent of Russian energy as soon as possible. The United States was among those who warned of the danger of Russian gas. Several countries were blind to the danger that energy could be used in a conflict.
In my opinion, Russia’s exports of gas to Germany, Italy and other EU countries made Putin dare to attack Ukraine. Putin knows that the West’s dependence on Russian energy will make the possibility of sanctions small. Many argued that energy imports were independent of policy and had to be seen as purely commercial. In particular, the construction of a new gas pipeline (Nord Stream 2) between Russia and Germany created debate. The United States warned Germany that the pipeline could make Germany vulnerable in a conflict. Today, the pipeline is complete, but will probably never be used. Now Germany and others are looking for other ways to get the gas.
The West’s purchase of Russian energy has also meant that Russia has earned billions. Money they have used to build up their arsenal. Weapons used in an attempt to stop that democracy in Ukraine.
Why 2014?
As I consider it now and have always considered it, the sanctions against Russia after 2014 were small and far too cautious.
By introducing a ban on imports of Russian energy, energy will not be able to be used as a means of pressure from Russia against the EU. Western countries would not have “buttered the Russian economy” either. This would mean that Russia would have to sell its energy elsewhere, where the willingness to pay a high price is less. We see today that Russia is trying to sell oil to countries in Africa at far below market price. The Russian economy would not be capable of the gigantic build-up of the military we have seen in recent years.
After February 24, Russia was excluded from the Swift system that deals with transfers of money internationally. But because Western countries depend on paying for their energy, some large Russian banks were not sanctioned. By introducing the sanctions we have today, we would now have an opportunity for a full blockade of the Swift system against Russia.
The war may have been avoided by sanctions
The war we see in Ukraine today might have been avoided by stronger reactions from the West in 2014. The Russian economy would be weaker and the opportunity to build up the defense less. Western countries would also become less vulnerable to Russian countermeasures.
These days, we are experiencing an almost full sporting and cultural boycott of Russia. This is perhaps the form of reaction that works best. I called for such measures after 2014. The reason I think they are important is that it becomes obvious to the people of Russia that they stand for something unacceptable. Not being able to see their sports heroes compete affects far more than generals not being allowed to travel to Spain.
The result of hesitating with sanctions is one hundred thousand dead. Thousands injured for the rest of their lives, traumatized people. Raped women and young girls. Cities became rock piles. The price of hesitation has been high. The hope with all the suffering is that democracy wins over the dictatorship. The war in Ukraine started in 2014, not February 24.
Sources:
Sanctions in response to Russia ‘s military aggression against Ukraine – guide for business – regjeringen.no
EU presents full list of Russia sanctions – E24 (From 2014)