Kakhovka dam blown up, who is behind it?
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This morning came the news of the Kakhovka dam being blown up. The dam that supplies Europe’s largest nuclear power plant with water for cooling. Ukraine blames Russia. Russia, for its part, blames Ukraine. It’s obviously too early to say anything about who was behind this, but I’ll give some good reasons why, in my judgement, Russia is behind it.
Forhindrer en Ukrainsk offensiv over Dnieper
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj claimed last autumn that Russia had placed explosives in the dam. As I consider it, this claim is probably true. The damage that caused the collapse of the dam facility cannot come from any drones or missiles. The destruction is too great for that. The cause must come from large quantities of explosives. As Russia controls this part of the dam, it is likely that they are behind it.
At a time when Ukraine has launched an offensive to recapture occupied territories, it will be in Russia’s interest to make the defense line smaller. A Ukrainian offensive across the Dnieper was unlikely, but could not be ruled out. Now it is even less likely. The defense line of Russia has clearly been reduced.
Large parts of Kherson on the side occupied by Russia are swamps that partially dry up in the summer. In the event of a flood, the areas will remain swamps, even in summer. This makes it almost impossible to use tanks in these areas.
Russia itself is unable to launch any offensive. Therefore, it does not matter to them that the distance to the Ukrainian side of the Dnieper becomes greater.
Kakhovka dam and Europe’s largest nuclear power plant
The Kakhova dam is important for Europe’s largest nuclear power plant. Cooling of the reactors is necessary and water is needed for this. The nuclear power plant gets its water from the Kakhova dam. Russia has taken control of the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia. However, it is very vulnerable and Ukrainian forces have been trying to regain control of the power plant for a long time.
By blowing up the dam in Kakhova, Russia prevents Ukraine from using the power plant to produce electricity for the country. This is in keeping with Russia’s attack on Ukrainian power supplies throughout the autumn and winter. Russia is trying to get Ukraine to give up by affecting the electricity supply.
Perhaps it is the case that Russia knows that the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia cannot be defended. From the Russian point of view, it is important not to allow the power plant to produce electricity for Ukraine.
A possible accident
It is possible that the explosive charges that Russia probably placed in the dam were accidentally set off. Equally, it is Russia’s responsibility.
The costs for Russia may be that the water supply to Crimea is affected, but this is highly doubtful. The water supply to Crimea is unlikely to be stopped by this event. The bursting of the Kakhova dam is further proof that Russia is on the defensive in the war. The incident is also proof that Russia cares very little about civilian lives.