How long will the war in Ukraine last?
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The question many are asking is how long the war in Ukraine will last. Another question is what a peace will entail and what alternatives can be thought of. I will go through the options and assess how likely they are.
Preconditions
There are a number of assumptions that must be taken into account when I have to assess the length of the war in Ukraine. The one and perhaps most decisive assumption is that Trump does not win the presidential election in the United States in 2024. If he does that, all support for Ukraine from the US side will probably fall away. It will be a disaster for Ukraine.
Another prerequisite is that the war does not lead to a confrontation between Russia and NATO, if it does, the entire war in Ukraine will be expanded to a level I am not in a position to assess.
Alternative outcomes of the war in Ukraine
Then I come to my assessment of the options that exist to bring some kind of end to the war.
Frozen conflict
A frozen conflict is a war where the parties control the borders they have control over without actively trying to expand them. A frozen conflict is in Ukraine is a partial victory for Russia. Time will always work for the occupier in such a conflict. The state that was and is in large parts of Donbas was a frozen conflict from 2014 to February 2022. A conflict in which the parties controlled each other, where skirmishes occurred but losses were limited on both sides. Russia has a tradition of such frozen conflicts. We see similar conflicts in Moldova and Georgia. Conflicts where Russia has actually occupied areas in these countries and where there is a war of positions between the parties.
What speaks against a frozen conflict in Ukraine as it is now is the size of the area. It will be far too demanding for both parties to control borders that are not accepted. For Russia, it will be an actual defeat as the borders are now, in relation to what was the aim of the war. For Ukraine, it is unacceptable to let go of Ukrainian territories without a fight. The first step towards a frozen conflict is often a ceasefire for a longer or shorter period.
Regime changer
Regime change in some of the countries is hardly conceivable. In Russia, because every imaginable opposition has been imprisoned or escaped abroad. The small group of other political expressions that exist in official Russia are parties that pat Putin on the back and support him. The Putin regime has control over the media, the legal system and the economic and political leadership. It is conceivable that Putin dies, but his successor will most likely be someone from the same regime and the same goals of the war.
In Ukraine, a regime that wants to appease Russia is completely unthinkable. If there is one thing the war has brought about, it is that the distance between the peoples of Ukraine and Russia has increased. A good example is that large parts of those who previously had Russian as their mother tongue have now switched to speaking Ukrainian almost in protest. The people of Ukraine will never accept a regime loyal to Russia again. Ukraine is essentially lost to today’s Russian regime.
Partial victory for one of the parties
The most likely end to the war is that both sides feel some sort of victory. For Ukraine, it may be to limit lost land areas as much as possible. Perhaps taking back the entire areas in the south down to Crimea could be an alternative, as well as taking back the areas in the east that have been lost after the war started in 2022. Such an alternative, combined with rapid NATO membership, may be enough for Ukraine to accept such a peace agreement. The problem is Russia. In this case, Russia will have lost in its own eyes. The purpose of the war, according to Putin, is to stop NATO’s expansion. Here, Russia will bring NATO even closer.
If we look at the time perspective, such a solution will be many years in the future. We are probably talking about 5-10 years from now. Ukraine will probably have to take back these areas militarily. Looking at the events of this spring and summer, it seems to take a long time. Very long. Ukraine is making progress at the front, especially in the south. But the autumn will probably put a stop to the progress and make it possible for Russia to create new defense lines. It will take at least a couple of years to get down to the Black Sea or the Sea of Azov if the Ukrainian progress is similar to this summer’s progress.
Events elsewhere in the world
A very conceivable outcome is that conflicts elsewhere in the world actually decide this war. It could be, for example, that the relationship between China and Taiwan develops into a military conflict. Then much of the US focus will be on Taiwan. So will Australia’s focus. In such a situation, it could go beyond Ukraine.
For Russia, too, conflicts elsewhere can lead to a reduced focus on Ukraine. These days, for example, the Caucasus is an area that Russia has great difficulty keeping within its sphere. A conflict in the Caucasus could lead to less attention being paid to Ukraine.
Sources:
Ukraine Offensive Against Russia Is too Slow for US, UK and EU – Bloomberg
Get ready for a long war – POLITICO