Do you remember back to the winter of 2013-14 when Ukraine was in the news all the time. A conflict that turned into a war and is still ongoing. Europe’s Forgotten War.

The cause of the war

In February 2010, Viktor Yanukovych was elected President of Ukraine. A rapprochement with Western Europe was among the things he promised before the election. Negotiations with the EU on a trade agreement were initiated and negotiations were completed. It only had to be approved by President Viktor Yanukovych. Ever since independence in 1991, Ukraine had a close relationship with Russia. The people wanted Ukraine to have a close relationship with all of Europe, not just Russia.

Russia saw Ukraine as its little brother and almost certainly threatened Viktor Yanukovych. The result was that the president would not approve the trade agreement with the EU. Instead, he would draw Ukraine even closer to Russia. The people reacted to this. The dream of having a closer relationship with the rest of Europe was crushed and Viktor Yanukovych appeared as a traitor to the people.

The Maidan revolution

In the center of Kyiv is Maidan Square. People gradually gathered there. The requirement was that Viktor Yanukovych should sign the cooperation agreement with the EU. Yanukovych refused and deployed police to try to remove the protesters. Eventually, the demonstrations on Maidan Square also became a protest against corruption, bureaucracy and the power of the oligarchs.

The people were simply tired of politicians who promised, without keeping their word. They were tired of corruption and bureaucracy. The oligarchs’ power over both the economy and the political system was threatened.

In February 2014, it all escalated. 130 people were killed on Maidan Square by riot police. The pressure on the president increased further and on 22 February 2014 he escaped to Russia. A little later that year, Petro Poroshenko was elected as the new president of Ukraine. It was Ukraine’s legally elected National Assembly that formally removed Viktor Yanukovych.

Russia’s reaction

This took place while Russia was hosting the Winter Olympics in Sochi. The last day of the Games was 23 February, i.e. the day after Yanukovych escaped. Russian President Putin condemned the incident. Many waited anxiously for Russia’s reaction. It didn’t take very long. A few days after the Olympics ended, unmarked “green-clad soldiers” appeared on the Crimean peninsula, eventually took over public offices and declared that an election would be held on Crimea’s annexation to Ukraine.

Russia had military bases on the Crimean Peninsula. An agreement between Ukraine and Russia was such that Russia would have military bases there and in return Ukraine would receive cheap Russian gas. The “green-clad soldiers” quickly told Ukraine that they were in fact Russian forces with no distinguishing marks, which Russia has subsequently admitted. 27 February 2015 Russia celebrated the 1 year anniversary of Russian special forces’ occupation of Crimea.

A highly questionable referendum was held where the people had two options. Both options were in reality for Crimea to belong to Russia and not Ukraine.

The original ethnic group on the Crimean peninsula was strongly against Russia’s invasion and wanted Crimea to remain part of Ukraine. During Stalin’s regime, all Crimean Tatars were ordered detained. This happened in 1944.

War in Donbas since 2014

Russia’s goal was clearly not just to annex Crimea. It was also to eliminate Ukraine. The way it was to be done was internal unrest in Ukraine. Create chaos and internal conflicts. Donbas is an area in eastern Ukraine towards the border with Russia. Most of the inhabitants here speak Russian as a result of the Russification of eastern Ukraine over the centuries.

Corresponding bumps appeared as in Crimea. They tried to take over control of public buildings. Central here were the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk, which are located in the Donbas, but the big city of Kharkiv was also central. In Kharkiv, the Russian-backed rebels were thrown out by the people themselves. In Lugansk and Donetsk, they took control with the help of Russian-backed soldiers and Russian nationalists.

Russia faced far tougher resistance now than in Crimea. Ukraine managed to mobilize a military resistance that prevented further advances. The area over which the Russian-backed separatists would have control is about half of Ukraine in area.

Igor Strelkov

A very central person both with the events in Crimea and in eastern Ukraine is Igor Strelkov. He is a well-known far-right Russian nationalist. His role has been thoroughly documented and he has also told about his role on Russian TV.

What ideology this man has can best be illustrated by his formation of a political group in 2016. This will work to unite Russia, Belarus and Ukraine as one state and incorporate the old Soviet controlled states into a large area of Russian control and influence. So resurrect the old Soviet empire.

Forgotten War

To date, approximately 14,000 have lost their lives in the war in eastern Ukraine. The war has become Europe’s forgotten war. Gradually, it has become a war of positions between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists.

Several attempts at negotiations between the parties have not led to anything. Recently , another attempt was made, where Russia and Ukraine. The Minsk 2 agreementinitially entails that heavy weapons are to be withdrawn from the area, that Ukraine is to gain control over the borders, that local elections are to be held in the area and that Donetsk and Lugansk are to be given a special status.

Minsk 2 has big questions

There are several unanswered questions and challenges surrounding the Minsk 2 agreement. Some of these are:

• What exactly does a special status entail? Here, Russia and Ukraine probably put different things into the interpretation.
• Who will take part in the local elections? Should approximately 1 million people who fled from the separatists be allowed to return to the election to cast their vote? What about Russians who have obviously moved there after the war started.
• How will Ukraine gain control over its own borders in practice?
• Why should an “amnesty” be given to crimes committed during the war? Does this also apply to an amnesty against those who were behind and or carried out the downing of the passenger plane from Malaysia where 298 innocent people were killed in flight MH17?
• Can Ukraine count on a withdrawal of weapons and forces when we know what happened in Debaltseve . There, the spiritualists attacked Ukrainian positions after the Minsk 2 indulgence. It was pure slaughter of Ukrainian soldiers.

A war in Russia’s interest

Russia has an interest in having a low active war going on. There are several reasons, but I can mention two reasons. It will be more difficult for Ukraine to become a member of the EU and NATO with an ongoing conflict. A NATO membership that only became relevant after the conflict with Russia requires that a new member has no border conflicts.

Another point that speaks for a low-intensity war being in Russia’s interest is that a conflict in Ukraine eats away at Ukraine’s economy and will perhaps contribute to destabilizing the country. Then Russia can see its intention to step in to “establish peace and order”.

The last point that argues that Russia is not interested in peace in Ukraine is the need for an external common enemy. In a Russia where the social problems seem ever greater, a common external enemy can create a unity that prevents internal unrest in the country.