Seven arrested in Moldova on suspicion of plans to destabilize the country.
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A total of 7 people have been arrested in Moldova, suspected of planning riots with the aim of destabilizing the country. Recently there were demonstrations organized by the Russian-friendly party SOR. The party is led by the Russian-friendly oligarch Ilan Shor. According to the rumours, people were paid to participate in the demonstrations against the EU-friendly government of the country. The national police chief says that the plot they believe has been uncovered is supported and financed by the Kremlin.
Transnistria, Moldova’s Donbas
In the north of Moldova lies Transnistria. This is an area controlled by Russian-backed rebels in the same way as in Donbas in Ukraine. Russia has for many years had soldiers in Transnistria, allegedly as a “peacekeeping” force. In practice, the force is there to put pressure on Moldova and ensure that Transnistria is effectively a separate country, not recognized by anyone else. Russia supports Transnistria financially.
It has been speculated ever since 2014 whether Russia will try to take the coastline of Ukraine along the Black Sea in order to connect Transnistria to Russia via Ukraine’s occupied territories. After the outbreak of war in Ukraine on 24 February 2022, this was probably one of the main goals for Russia.
Why does Russia want to destabilize Moldova?
During the interwar period, Moldova was part of Romania. The connection to Romania is close and in both Moldova and Romania there are forces that want a reunification of the countries, although this is not considered particularly relevant in either of the two countries. Moldova has tried to have a good relationship with Romania, Ukraine, Russia and the EU. Russia’s involvement in Transnistria makes relations with Russia unstable and changing.
Moldova’s desire for EU membership is not well received in the Kremlin. The dream of many Russians is to restore the old Russian Empire. This dream also includes Moldova. In practice, Moldova has no military defense and will be very vulnerable to rebellions frozen by Moscow. An uprising could be the pretext Putin needs for military action from the forces already in Transnistria. It is not known how large Russia’s forces are, but it is suggested around 1,500 soldiers.
Ukraine fears a Russian attack from Transnistria
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has long feared a Russian attack from Transnistria. If Russia takes control of all of Moldova, a new front will probably be erected between Transnistria and Ukraine. The attempt to connect Transnistria to Russia via the Black Sea will probably be relevant again.
It has long been speculated whether Moldova is the next country on Putin’s list of areas to be conquered with his imperialism. The speculation has been fueled by recent events.
Sources:
Moldova Smashes Pro-Moscow Subversion Ring – Police – The Moscow Times
Russia-backed plot to cause unrest in Moldova has been foiled, police say | World News | Sky News
Moldova says it thwarted Russia-linked plot ahead of anti-government protests – POLITICO
Moldova police arrest members of Russian-backed network over unrest plot | Moldova | The Guardian